Articles

Research with sources and evidence levels on AI and the paths of humanity.

• AI’s electricity

  Data centres use about 1.5% of the world’s electricity today and could approach 3% by 2030. Why it grows less than compute, and what the model’s ceiling means.

  Emerging evidence · Draft

• The compute behind AI

  The compute used to train the most advanced models grows 4 to 5 times a year. What is measured, where that pace comes from and what it means for the futures.

  Emerging evidence · Draft

• How much risk of catastrophe?

  Experts and superforecasters give an AI-caused catastrophe before 2100 probabilities that differ by a factor of five. What was asked, what they answered and why nobody can measure it.

  Speculative · Draft